Demand for artificial intelligence goods is now the main force behind global trade growth, according to a new report from DHL and New York University's Stern School of Business.
The latest DHL Globalisation Tracker, released on October 8, 2026, found that AI-related trade helped protect global commerce from tariffs and conflict in the Middle East.
Goods used to build AI infrastructure, such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment, have seen strong demand this year.
AI Goods Lead Trade Growth
Trade in AI-enabling goods drove 42% of goods trade growth in 2025, according to WTO and OECD analysis cited in the report. That share rose to 76% in the first quarter of 2026.
"The biggest story in global trade right now is AI, not tariffs," said John Pearson, chief executive of DHL Express.
Pearson said every AI query depends on logistics. He added that chips, networking equipment and other goods must be in the right place at the right time.
Global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years. The only exception was the rebound after Covid.
East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest growth of any region. Its trade value rose 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier.
Europe followed with growth of 12%, and Sub-Saharan Africa posted 11%.
A larger share of East Asia and Pacific trade also stayed within the region. That share climbed from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026, helped by Asian supply chains serving AI demand.
Separate analysis by Dimerco found that air cargo capacity out of Southeast Asia is now dominated by AI and semiconductor shipments rather than e-commerce.
War and Tariffs Hit Some Economies
The Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supply chains. Airlines paused cargo operations and cancelled flights to the region, and some routes have not been restored.
The report found the trade damage stayed concentrated in economies that rely on the Strait. Trade value fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026.
US tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but their global effect was limited. The US made up only 13% of world imports in recent years, and about half of those imports were exempt from the tariff increases as of August.
Most countries also chose not to retaliate broadly. Many instead sought new trade agreements to reach other markets.
Prof. Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern, said the surprise is not only that trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war. "The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock," he said.
Global goods trade is now projected to grow by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029. That compares with 2.7% a year over the previous decade.
