Bill Gates published an essay on his personal website this week. In it, the Microsoft co-founder says artificial intelligence is entering a phase that could be one of the most turbulent times in human history.
Gates wrote that AI is improving at a fast pace. He said it can now replace and even go beyond human thinking in many tasks.
He believes the shift will not take decades like past tech changes did. Instead, he says it could hit within a single decade.
Gates pointed to white collar jobs first. He said employment has already dropped among younger workers in fields that are easy for AI to take over.
He also expects blue collar work to feel the effects. Gates said robots are becoming cheaper and more skilled, with much of that progress happening overseas, especially in China.
Gates proposes new taxes
Gates offered a few ideas to soften the blow. One is a tax on AI tokens, which companies use to track and bill for AI usage.
He also proposed a tax on robots that replace human workers. Right now, he wrote, businesses can often write off a robot as an expense right away, while human wages get taxed.
Money from these taxes, he said, could fund retraining programs and stronger safety nets for displaced workers. He also floated the idea of a "Human Reserved" domain, a set of jobs kept only for people.
Gates used his late father as an example. His dad had Alzheimer's, and the caregivers who looked after him gave a kind of comfort Gates believes no robot could replace.
He suggested caregiving, mental health work, and some medical roles could fall into this reserved category. He said the exact list would need to be worked out through public debate.
An expert weighs in
Oren Etzioni, a computer science professor at the University of Washington, spoke with ABC News about the essay. He said he agrees with much of what Gates described as the problem.
Etzioni supports a robot tax, since it targets job displacement directly. But he is not convinced a token tax makes sense.
"I think that taxing tokens is like taxing keystrokes on a typewriter," Etzioni said. He added that it measures effort, not whether workers are actually being replaced.
Etzioni also cautioned against slowing AI development too much. He said the United States needs to watch its competitors, including China, so it does not fall behind.
He said the country does not need new government agencies. Instead, he argued existing agencies should adopt better policies to handle AI risks.
Gates wrote that he would support a plan to slow AI worldwide if one existed. He does not think that will happen, since economic and political pressures are pushing development forward at full speed.
Etzioni ended his comments with a call for quick action. He said it is not too late to prepare, but leaders need to move with urgency before the transition becomes a crisis.
