The race to build artificial intelligence has grown so intense that US data centers could burn more natural gas than Germany and Japan combined by 2035.
That's according to a new report from BloombergNEF. The firm says data centers could consume about 18 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day within the next decade.
That figure is nearly double what BloombergNEF forecast just nine months ago. The group says its new numbers account for the fact that not every announced data center project will actually get built.
Companies Are Building Their Own Power Plants
Several tech companies have announced plans to build natural gas plants that power data centers directly, without relying on the regular electric grid.
Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have all made these kinds of announcements in recent months. These onsite projects are expected to use between 2.9 billion and 3.4 billion cubic feet of gas per day by 2035.
That amount is close to what all data centers combined use today, including power drawn from the grid.
Still, BloombergNEF says onsite power plants may only make up a small share of the total growth in demand.
Rising Demand Could Push Prices Higher
Most of the growth is expected to come from data centers that stay connected to the regular power grid.
These grid-connected data centers could drive 15 billion cubic feet per day of new demand by the middle of the next decade. That's five times more growth than all other sectors on the grid combined.
Much of today's data center construction depends on natural gas prices staying stable. Prices have mostly held steady in recent years.
Analysts at Noreva say that stability might not last. They point to the combined effect of data center growth and rising exports of liquefied natural gas.
Tech companies with large balance sheets may be able to absorb higher energy costs. Regular utility customers might not have that same cushion.
There is also a climate cost tied to the growth in gas use.
Burning natural gas releases carbon dioxide during extraction, processing, and distribution. The International Energy Agency estimates that each cubic foot burned produces about 60 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent.
The added demand from data centers could generate 1 million metric tons more greenhouse gas pollution every day.
That daily total is close to 12% of all greenhouse gas emissions produced in the United States today.
The report shows a clear link between the AI buildout and rising energy demand over the next ten years. It also raises questions about how utility prices and emissions could be affected as more data centers come online through 2035.
